Re-Evaluating the Biggest NFL Trades From the 2022 Offseason

เวลาปล่อย:2022-11-29 23:49 ที่มา: ต้นฉบับ เรียกดู:

Lets reassess the 10 biggest NFL trades of the 2022 offseason. Which teams would like to rethink their most significant swaps?

Reassessing 2022s Biggest NFL Offseason Trades

March 16 Commanders Acquire Carson Wentz

March 16 Chargers Acquire Khalil Mack

March 16 Browns Acquire Amari Cooper

March 16 Broncos Acquire Russell Wilson

March 17 Raiders Acquire Davante Adams

March 23 Dolphins Acquire Tyreek Hill

April 28 Cardinals Acquire Marquise Brown

July 6 Panthers Acquire Baker Mayfield

Hindsight is 20/20, both in life and in theNFL. There were 38 NFL trades between the start of the 2022 league year in March and the beginning of the regular season in September, and front offices on both sides of those deals probably felt good about the swaps when they occurred.

But with 10 weeks of the regular season in the books, we can begin to re-evaluate some of those trades with a critical eye. In some cases, a trade was a clear win-win with positive results for both teams; in others, a deal obviously benefited one club more than their rival. We also saw one trade that both teams would probably like to undo (and you might be able to guess which deal that was).

Lets walk through the offseasons 10 most significant offseason trades in chronological order and determine which sides of the deal are pleased with the results.

A note on listing draft compensation when denoting anNFL draftchoice from 2022, Ill list the round followed by the overall pick number. For example, the first pick of the second round (the 33rd overall choice) would be expressed as 2-33.

Terms: Commanders acquire Carson Wentz, 2-47, 7-240; Colts acquire 2-42, 3-73, conditional 2023 third.

The Washington Commanders reportedlycreated a list of 42 quarterbacksthey could potentially target in the 2022 offseason. They ultimately landed on Wentz, but his results this year have been anything but inspiring.

Wentz only started six games for the Commanders before going down with a fractured right ring finger. Washington went 2-4 in those contests. Their two victories over the Jaguars in Week 1 and the Bears in Week 6 came by an average of 5.5 points. In their four losses, the Commanders were defeated by an average of 11 points.

Among the 24 quarterbacks with at least 230 attempts this season, Wentz ranks 23rd in adjusted net yards per attempt, ahead of only Matthew Stafford. Instead of serving as a panacea for Washingtons offensive woes, Wentz has become another member of the Commanders QB carousel. Washington can exitWentzs contractwith no dead money next offseason, and it seems likely theyll do just that.

Taylor Heinicke has been better in Wentzs stead, and the Commanders have posted improved offensive success and more wins with Heinicke under center. Its unclearif Wentz will regain his starting jobwhen hes eligible to return from injured reserve next week.

Its difficult to imagine the Commanders were facing much competition in the Wentz sweepstakes, so credit to Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard for getting at least one guaranteed third-round pick in exchange for the much-maligned quarterback.

Indy will pick up a 2023 second-rounder if Wentz plays at least 70% of Washingtons snaps this season; otherwise, the pick stays in the third round. If Wentz reclaims his starting position in Week 11 and takes every snap for the rest of the year, he could hit that threshold. But unless theCommanders are threatening for a playoff spot, theyll probably sit Wentz to ensure that pick doesnt get upgraded.

Wentz had no future in Indianapolis following his late-season implosion in 2021, and this trade allowed Ballard to defray some of the cost of acquiring him from the Eagles in the first place. Indianapolis would do this deal again in a heartbeat.

Verdict:Commanders would undo the Wentz trade, but Colts would redo it.

Terms: Chargers acquire Khalil Mack; Bears acquire 2-48, 2023 sixth.

Plenty has gone wrong for the Los Angeles Chargers this season. Several of their key contributors, including Joey Bosa, Rashawn Slater, Mike Williams, and J.C. Jackson, have suffered serious injuries. Brandon Staleys defense is a defective unit despite costly offseason investments. Los Angeleswouldnt be in the playoffsif the season ended today.

Thus, the result of the Mack trade has been a breath of fresh air amidst a somewhat disappointing start to the Chargers season. Through 10 weeks, Mack is tied for 10th in the NFL with seven sacks, and hes also played outstanding run defense.

Mack is probably getting a little lucky in terms of sack production. Hes only generated nine quarterback hits (tied for 42nd in the league), while his 13.1% pass-rush win rate is just 72nd among qualifying edge defenders, perPFF. Still, hes been a stabilizing force on a Bosa-less defense. Just imagine how poor the Chargers defense would be if Mack werent around.

Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles wasnt under any illusions about the state of the team he inherited in the spring. Chicago needed a complete rebuild, and Poles hastened that process by trading away the 31-year-old Mack, who will likely be nearing the twilight of his career when the Bears hit their next competitive window.

MORE:Justin Fields Improvement Means the World to the Chicago Bears

Poles also shipped outRobert QuinnandRoquan Smithin the months since dealing Mack, signaling a total youth movement on defense. That movement will include safety Jaquan Brisker, one of 2022s most exciting defensive rookies and the player whom the Bears drafted with the selection they received for Mack.

Verdict:Both the Chargers and Bears would do the Mack deal again.

Terms: Browns acquire Amari Cooper, 6-202; Cowboys acquire 5-155, 6-193.

Id love to know if Cleveland Browns GM Andrew Berry executed the Cooper trade in anticipation of a wild wide receiver trade market, or if Cleveland simply got lucky. Wideout prices exploded just one day after the Browns officially acquired Cooper and remained costly throughout the offseason (as well touch on later).

Cooper joined the Browns with three years and $60 million left on his contract, which now seems like a perfectly reasonable total. All Cleveland had to do to pick up a 27-year-old WR1 on a team-friendly deal was sacrifice a fifth-round pick and move down nine spots in the sixth round.

The trade has been worth it and then some for Cleveland. Cooper has dominated the Browns passing game his 27% team target share ranks 11th league-wide. Hell always be a streaky player, but a 42-585-5 line through nine games puts Cooper on pace for a terrific debut campaign in Cleveland.

The Dallas Cowboys would like to have this one back. Dallas remains in a good position even afterlosing to the Packerson Sunday, and their offense is starting to catch up to their defense following Dak Prescotts recent return from injury.

Still, the Cowboys clearly need help at wide receiver. CeeDee Lamb is an excellent pass catcher, but he requires a running mate, and it doesnt seem like Michael Gallup whos yet to top 50 yards this season is fully recovered from his January ACL tear.

Dallas looked into Brandin Cooks and Jerry Jeudy at the trade deadline, and club managementcant stop talking about signing free agent Odell Beckham Jr.They should have just tried to keep Cooper, even if that meant reworking his deal or restructuring another veteran to fit the wideout on the books.

Verdict:Cleveland would redo the Cooper trade, but the Cowboys would undo it.

Terms: Broncos acquire Russell Wilson, 4-116; Seahawks acquire Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, 1-9, 2-40, 5-145, 2023 first, 2023 second.

As a supposed solution to the Denver Broncos never-ending quarterback problem, Wilson was supposed to mark the beginning of a bright era in Denver. With a new head coach and a new scheme in place, Wilson would team with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Javonte Williams to create a dominant offensive attack.

The Broncos so strongly believed that line of logic that they locked Wilson into afive-year, $245 million extensionsight unseen. Denver cant realistically exit the contract, which includes $124 million fully guaranteed and madeWilson the second-highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, until the 2026 offseason.

Thats a concern! Wilsons completion percentage, interception rate, QBR, and adjusted net yards per attempt are all at career-worst marks, and hes on pace to absorb nearly 60 sacks. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson is 27th inEPA + CPOE composite.

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Wilson will turn 34 years old later this month. Tom Brady can play until hes 45, but its probably a mistake to assume that every signal-caller even those as accomplished as Wilson can maintain above-average play into their late 30s and beyond.

Maybe Wilson can turn things around, but that will be hard to do this season, especially with Williams, Tim Patrick, and left tackle Garett Bolles already on IR and Jeudy banged up after Week 10. His struggles could theoretically lead to Nathaniel Hacketts ouster after only one year at the helm.

It seemed impossible at the time of the trade, but the Seattle Seahawks are getting better quarterback play in 2022 than they received from Wilson in 2021. Geno Smiths production is on par with Wilsons 2020 performance and just a tier below Wilsons peak output.

On top of that, Seattle used the early-round selections acquired from Denver to draft left tackle Charles Cross and edge rusher Boye Mafe, locking in toolsy players on rookie contracts at premium positions. Theyll also receive the Broncos first- and second-rounders in 2023, which as of today, would slot in as the seventh and 43rd overall choices.

And lets not forget about the veteran assets Denver gave Seattle. Noah Fant is third on the team in receptions and yardage. Hes only 24 years old and under contract for $6.85 million in 2023. Defensive lineman Shelby Harris, included in the trade to help offset salary, has consistently generated pressure up front.

The Wilson trade has already turned into a heist for the Seahawks just halfway through the 2022 season. As the weeks, months, and years go on, Seattle may only look wiser.

Verdict:The Broncos would undo the Wilson deal, but the Seahawks would make the trade again.

Terms: Raiders acquire Davante Adams; Packers acquire 1-22, 2-53.

Its not as if Adams hasnt been productive for the Las Vegas Raiders. He has.

The two-time All-Pro is tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns, sixth in yardage, and eighth in receptions. If Adams continues at his current pace, hell finish with 108 receptions, 1,481 yards, and 15 touchdowns, better than his four-year average with the Packers from 2018-21 (108-1,328-12).

And yet, the Raiders are 2-7. They just lost to Jeff Saturday in his first game as the Colts interim head coach, arent anywhere near playoff contention, and would hold the second overall pick in the 2023 draft if the season ended today.

First-year head coach Josh McDaniels is already facing questions, leading to ashow of support from owner Mark Davison Monday.

Of course, none of this is Adams fault. But its apparent the Raiders roster is in a different place than McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler may have thought when Las Vegas acquired the ex-Packers receiver.

The Raiders still have a plethora of offensive line issues. With Darren Waller still battling injuries, they dont have a reliable No. 2 pass catcher behind Adams. Meanwhile, Patrick Grahams defenseranks dead last in DVOA.

Vegas probably isnt as poor as its record. Their -23 point differential means they should be closer to a 4-5 team than a 2-7 squad. But its not as if a 4-5 club would represent a serious competitor in the AFC West or the conference as a whole.

By trading for Adams, the Raiders proclaimed themselves contenders, but its evident they arent there yet.

This is the only trade that I think both teams would vote to undo. As much as the Adams trade hasnt worked out for the Raiders, its perhaps gone even more poorly for the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay didnt necessarily want to trade Adams. The veteran receiverconfirmed the Packers offered him morethan thefive-year, $140 million contracthe eventually signed with the Raiders. But Adams, perhaps worried about Aaron Rodgers future in Green Bay, wanted to return to his home state and reunite with his former Fresno State teammate, Derek Carr, and the Packers honored his request.

Without Adams, Green Bay has limped to a 4-6 record. Before Sundays 31-point explosion against the Cowboys, the Packers had averaged just 17.1 points per game, while their pass offense ranked 24th in dropback EPA.

Romeo Doubs (now injured), Allen Lazard, and Christian Watson (three TDs against Dallas) have all flashed, but Rodgers doesnt have the same sense of rhythm and timing with those options as he displayed with Adams.

The pair had a mind meld that Rodgers hasnt developed with his other receivers, and the lack of connection has shown up in the mercurial quarterbacks performance.

Even if Adams was still around, the Packers might not have been able to compete with the now 8-1 Vikings in the NFC North. But if theyd found a way to retain the 29-year-old, they couldve had a better shot at a Wild Card berth.

Verdict:Both the Raiders and Packers would undo the Adams swap.

Terms: Colts acquire Matt Ryan; Falcons acquire 3-82.

If you predicted the highlight of Matt Ryans season with the Colts would be a39-yard scramblein a game led by interim head coach Jeff Saturday, youre probably the same lucky person who won the $2.04 billion Powerball lottery.

Its safe to say things havent turned out the way Ryan or the Colts envisioned. Instead of dominating the AFC South, Indy is on the fringes of playoff contention. The Colts fired head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Marcus Brady, thenshockingly replaced Reich with Saturday, whod never coached at the college or NFL level.

Indy believed the 37-year-old Ryan could be a multi-year solution to their QB issues, but they benched him for two weeks in favor of former sixth-round pick Sam Ehlinger. Saturday put Ryan back in the starting lineup for Week 10, and the Colts earned their first victory since Week 6.

With the benefit of hindsight, Indianapolis would realize their roster isnt as talented as they thought. The Colts lack talent at premium positions, their o-line is a mess, and they need more playmakers. Ryan isnt necessarily the problem, but he isnt a cure-all, either.

Totally fine. The Atlanta Falcons arguably should have tried to trade Ryan before the 2021 season, which would have saved them millions of dollars in cap space that they could have used to invest in other areas of the roster.

Atlanta hadnt been over .500 with Ryan under center since 2017, and their squad required a rebuild. Despite his long-standing ties to the team, it was time for the Falcons to move on. Given how Ryan has looked at times with the Colts, a third-round pick is an excellent return.

Verdict:The Colts would probably undo the Ryan trade, but the Falcons would do it again.

Terms: Dolphins acquire Tyreek Hill; Chiefs acquire 1-29, 2-50, 4-121, 2023 fourth, 2023 sixth.

The Miami Dolphins decision to trade for Hill, in tandem with their move to hire Mike McDaniel as head coach, has turned around the franchises fortunes, rescued Tua Tagovailoas career, andturned Miami into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Not bad, Chris Grier!

While hes no longer on pace to break the single-season receiving-yardage record, Hill still ranks first in the NFL in receptions and yards. He leads the league by a mile in yards per route run, and hes posted at least 140 yards in half of his games.

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Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and McDaniels scheme create swaths of space for the Dolphins offense to maneuver, and Tagovailoa has become a master of finding and hitting the right read. Tua leads all quarterbacks in EPA per play, QBR, passer rating, ANY/A, and touchdown rate. Hed be the leadingcandidate for MVPif he hadnt missed two full games and parts of two others with head and back injuries.

The Dolphins are a near-lock for the playoffs. As an organization, theyre in the best position theyve been in for decades. Thats notallbecause of Hill, but hes played a massive role in Miamis transformation.

As amazing as Hill has been for the Dolphins, there are a few reasons to believe the Kansas City Chiefs would make this trade over again.

Lets start on the field. Kansas City didnt procure a like-for-like replacement for Hill because no such player exists. Instead, they replaced him in the aggregate by signing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency, drafting Skyy Moore in the second round, and trading for Kadarius Toney at the deadline.

Through 10 weeks, the Chiefs rank first in points per game, yards per play, and efficiency, and second in yards per game. While Hill is posting a season for the ages in Miami, Kansas City hasnt missed a beat. Thats a testament to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

Trading Hill has also given the Chiefs financial flexibility. Kansas City understood that if you have Mahomes under center, you probably dont need a wide receiver making $30 million per season. Combine the 2022 cap charges for Smith-Schuster, MVS, Moore, and Toney, and youre looking at a figure below $10 million.

By saving money on pass catchers and trusting Mahomes and Reid to make hay, the Chiefs can reinvest those savings at other positions of need. They can continue to bring in highly-paid offensive linemen like Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown Jr. or add veteran pieces to their defense, even as Mahomes cap numbers approach the $40 and $50 million range.

It sounds odd to say Kansas City is better off without Hill, especially as he dominates for the Dolphins. But when you factor in his salary and how Mahomes can elevate his receivers, the Chiefs made the right call from a roster-building perspective.

Verdict:Both the Dolphins and the Chiefs would redo the Hill deal.

Terms: Eagles acquired A.J. Brown; Titans acquired 1-18, 3-101.

Like the Dolphins, the Philadelphia Eagles had questions about their young quarterback after the 2021 campaign. And like Miami, they decided to give their signal-caller a WR1.

Brown hasnt posted the same sort of volume that Hill has with the Dolphins, but hes been outstanding nonetheless. With 44 receptions, 725 yards, and six touchdowns through nine games, Brown is on pace to match or exceed his previous career highs.

Hes also become an alpha for Jalen Hurts while pushing DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins, and the rest of Philadelphias receivers one notch down the depth chart. Brown and Hurts nearly singlehandedly gave the Eagles the win against the Steelers in Week 8, when they connected six times for 156 yards and three scores.

Philadelphia also signed Brown to an extremely team-friendly deal after acquiring him from the Titans. His $25 million annual average value ranks fifth among wideouts, while his three-year cash value ($69 million) is seventh. Brown is younger than every receiver ahead of him in both metrics except for DK Metcalf.

Howie Roseman should be Executive of the Year after adding pieces like Haason Reddick, James Bradberry, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (another trade hed easily redo), but Brown has been the Eagles most impactful acquisition.

The Tennessee Titans likely figured they were in line to take a step back this season. With Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry a year older, Jon Robinson and Mike Vrabel may not have felt Tennessees roster was in a position to contend again after earning the AFCs No. 1 seed last season.

And yet, here we are again. The Titans are 6-3, sit as the conferences third seed, and hold a two-game AFC South lead over the Colts. Vrabels team has used a lot of smoke and mirrors to get where they are. Most of the credit should go to Tennessees defense, one of the NFLs best against the run and above-average against the pass.

Meanwhile, the Titans pass offense ranks just 22nd in EPA per dropback. Theyve posted only 21 passing plays of 20+ yards, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. Robert Woods, Tennessees leading receiver with 24 catches for 266 yards, is no longer an explosive player.

Treylon Burks, whom the Titans drafted with the first-round pick they received in exchange for Brown, could eventually become a big-play threat. But it probably wont happen in his rookie year, especially after he missed four games of development due to injury.

Tennessee could use a player like Brown right about now. So why did they trade him? The Titans front office pegged it as a financial decision, but they could have made the money work if they wanted to.

Browns 2022 cap charge is just $5.68 million, and he wont have a $13+ million cap hit until 2025. Those would have been easily affordable numbers for Tennessee, especially if Tannehill and Henrys contracts come off the books soon.

Instead of the $25 million salary he eventually landed from Philadelphia, Brown says the Titans offered him just $16 million annually, with the chance to make $20 million per year via incentives. It was a mistake that Robinson and Vrabel are likely regretting.

Verdict:The Eagles would redo the Brown trade, but the Titans would not.

Terms: Cardinals acquire Marquise Brown and 3-100; Ravens acquire 1-23.

The headline of the Brown trade was that the Arizona Cardinals gave up a first-round pick for Hollywood. But when you factor in the third-rounder Baltimore sent back to Arizona, the Cards only sacrificed the equivalent of a late second-round choice.

Thats a pretty good price for a 25-year-old receiver with Browns track record, especially given the packages that rival teams traded for other pass catchers. Hes also under contract through 2023 at roughly $15.5 million in total.

Brown was on pace through six games to set new career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. With DeAndre Hopkins suspended, Brown was Kyler Murrays No. 1 receiver and performed as such with a 43-485-3 line.

A foot injury has sidelined Brown since Week 6, but he could return after Arizonas Week 12 bye. At that point, well have to see how hes reintegrated into an offense that now features Hopkins and Rondale Moore in prominent roles.

Brown wasnt happy with his role in the Baltimore Ravens offense and requested a trade. Baltimores front office is typically accommodating, and they may not have wanted to get involved in Browns looming contract negotiations.

Still, the Ravens could absolutely benefit from having a receiver like Brown. Rashod Bateman is done for the year after suffering a Lisfranc injury, but he wasnt all that productive before going down. Mark Andrews is Lamar Jacksons top pass catcher, but Baltimore needs a speed threat to open up the offense (hence why they just signed DeSean Jackson).

The Ravens were counting on Bateman, and they couldnt have known hed be injured and ineffective. But even if Bateman were healthy, I think wed all feel a bit better about Baltimores chances in the playoffs if they still had an option like Brown in their wide receiver corps.

Verdict:The Cardinals would redo the Brown deal, but the Ravens probably wouldnt.

Terms: Panthers acquire Baker Mayfield; Browns acquire conditional 2024 fifth.

The Carolina Panthers thought Mayfield would represent a substantial upgrade over the QB play theyd received in recent years, and who could blame them? Surely, Mayfield would be a better option than the Kyle Allen/Teddy Bridgewater/Will Grier/Sam Darnold/PJ Walker disaster combination of the last three seasons, right?

Well, not quite. Mayfield has easily been the worst quarterback in the league by EPA and QBR. He looked lost and disjointed in Weeks 1-5 before going down with a high ankle sprain, and he couldnt recover his starting role from Walker upon returning.

With Walker now dealing with an ankle injury of his own, Mayfield will start in Week 11. More than likely, hes auditioning for another team. The Panthers will have a new head coach in 2023 and target quarterbacks near the top of the draft. Mayfield almost assuredly wont be on the roster.

After trading for Deshaun Watson, the Browns had to get Mayfield off their 53. With no other teams searching for a quarterback, Cleveland did well to get anything for Mayfield, even if it meant eating $10.5 million of his salary.

The fifth-rounder the Browns acquired will turn into a fourth if Mayfield plays at least 70% of Carolinas offensive snaps this year. Hes currently at 54.1%, so he should get there if he remains the Panthers starter for the rest of the season.

Verdict:The Panthers wouldnt acquire Mayfield again, but the Browns would redo the trade.

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