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English Premier League predictions: Arsenal headlines two best bets for Saturdays action

Back one team total, one full-game total

Arsenals Gabriel Martinelli celebrates after scoring his sides fourth goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Everton at the Emirates stadium in London, Wednesday, March 1, 2023.

Before Matchday 26 of the 2022-23 season gets underway, were set to provide a pair of English Premier League predictions.

The theme of Saturdays slate, our focus here, is that most games have an impact on either the top or bottom of the table.

To start the day, we have Manchester City vs. Newcastle United in a game that will impact the Champions League spots while Arsenal vs. Bournemouth affects both ends of the table.

But, which games should bettors target for their wagers? Below are my favorite pair of plays.

Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

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Arsenal Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (-105)

The Gunners will play this match on short rest after a dominant performance against Everton in the midweek, but their offense should see no decline.

This season, Arsenal has established themselves as one of the best home offenses in the Premier League. Through their first 12 matches, theyre creating 2.16 non-penalty expected goals on target (xGOT) per 90 minutes and have bagged at least two non-penalty goals in all but three home matches Newcastle United, Brentford and Manchester City.

But, when manager Mikel Artetas side goes up against a weak Premier League side, the result is simple domination.

In three games against Leicester City, Nottingham Forest and Everton all three sides that rank in the bottom-four in terms of expected goal differential Arsenal has created 3.53 non-penalty xGOT per 90 and has surpassed this total with room to spare in all three matches.

On the flip-side, Bournemouths road defense is quite bad.

In four road games against Big Six sides this season, the Cherries are allowing three non-penalty xGOT per 90 minutes and have allowed three of those four teams to clear this total.

Take the hosts to bag a trio at -115 or better.

Harry Kane getting a rest in the midweek is slightly concerning for under bettors, but Ill continue to back Wolves unders at home.

Take out the home matches against Arsenal and Manchester City as well as the fixture against Brighton which saw Wolves red-carded and bettors will find the remainder has proved very low-event.

In those nine matches, Wolves and their opponents have combined to average 1.24 non-penalty xGOT per 90 minutes, according tofotmob.com.

In fact, the Wolves attack has generated under one expected goal at home in all but two matches.

Given the prowess of the Tottenham defense theyve allowed 1.15 non-penalty xGOT per 90 this season AND enter this match a positive regression candidate expect the Wolves offense to accomplish little.

That said, the Tottenham attack generally performs worse away from home compared with matches at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Through 12 road EPL fixtures, Spurs are creating only 1.16 non-penalty xGOT per 90 and have wildly overperformed their underlying metrics (19 non-penalty goals on 13.9 non-penalty xGOT).

Against a Wolves defense that held Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United to 1.12 non-penalty xGOT per 90 and saw all three of those games finish under this benchmark on the underlying metrics, expect another snoozer.

This content was created by a Boston.com partner. The editorial department of Boston.com had no role in writing, production, or display. Boston.com may be compensated for publishing this content and/or receive a commission on purchases of products or services described within the post.

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